Is solar worth it in Pakistan in 2026? Payback with and without net metering

Yes, solar is worth it for most homes that use a lot of grid power, but it pays back more slowly than before. Since 9 February 2026, new solar users get net billing: exported units earn about Rs 11, while grid units cost about Rs 40 or more. In our Lahore example, a 5 kW on-grid system costing Rs 7 lakh pays back in about 3.7 to 4.8 years, against 2.4 years under the old net metering.

What changed from net metering to net billing?

NEPRA notified new prosumer regulations on 9 February 2026 (Dawn, 10 Feb 2026). For anyone who applies from that date:

• Exports are no longer swapped unit for unit. Units you send to the grid are credited at the National Average Energy Purchase Price (NAEPP), about Rs 10 to Rs 11 a unit. Units you take from the grid are billed at your normal tariff.
• Contracts run 5 years, down from 7, renewable by mutual consent.
• Your system can’t be bigger than your sanctioned load. The old limit was 1.5 times sanctioned load (Profit, 11 Feb 2026).
• DISCOs can refuse new applications once solar on your transformer reaches 80% of its capacity.
• You pay interconnection costs, including meters (Geo, 10 Feb 2026).

Systems up to 25 kW need no NEPRA licence and pay no fee, backdated to 9 February 2026 (Dawn, 28 Apr 2026). Above 25 kW, the one-time fee is Rs 1,000 per kW.

For the full rules, see our net metering guide.

What does grid electricity cost per unit in 2026?

Solar saves you money only by replacing units you’d otherwise buy. For unprotected homes with sanctioned load below 5 kW, the current per-unit rates, before taxes, are:

We worked these out from the July 2025 tariff, S.R.O. 1157(I)/2025, minus the cuts in NEPRA’s 11 February 2026 decision as reported by Geo. For example, 501-600 units: Rs 41.62 minus Rs 1.40 is Rs 40.22.

The Power Division notified the new fixed charges in February 2026 (Profit, 17 Feb 2026). We couldn’t open the newer gazette notification itself.

Homes with sanctioned load of 5 kW or more are on time-of-use rates instead. In the July 2025 schedule these were Rs 46.85 peak and Rs 40.53 off-peak. We haven’t confirmed the 2026 time-of-use figures.

How much power does a 5 kW system make?

Global Solar Atlas gives 1,465.6 units per kW a year for Lahore. A 5 kW system makes:

• 5 × 1,465.6 = 7,328 units a year
• about 611 units a month, or 20 units a day

That’s a best case for a well-tilted, clean, unshaded system. January output in Lahore is about 36% lower than April (93.2 against 146.6 units per kW).

Karachi (about 1,697 units per kW) and Quetta (about 1,936) get more sun. For other cities, see what size solar system you need.

How long does solar take to pay back in Pakistan?

The home: Lahore, about 600 units a month, unprotected, on the grid.

Our assumptions:

• Each unit you use yourself saves Rs 40. That sits between the 501-600 slab (Rs 40.22) and the 2025 off-peak rate (Rs 40.53).
• Each unit you export earns Rs 11.
• Self-use: 30% or 50% of solar output is used directly in the daytime. This depends on when you run ACs, pumps and appliances, so we show both.
• Prices: Rs 7 lakh for 5 kW on-grid, inside installer prices of Rs 5.5 lakh to Rs 9 lakh (Toolsfluent, Aston Energy, 2026). Rs 10 lakh for 5 kW hybrid with a 5 kWh lithium battery, inside Aston Energy’s Rs 9 lakh to Rs 13 lakh. See solar system prices.
• Battery: 5 kWh at 90% usable moves 4.5 units a day into the evening, or 1,643 units a year. The 90% figure is a battery seller’s claim, and we ignore charging losses.

Example 1: 5 kW on-grid with net billing, 30% self-use

• Self-used: 7,328 × 30% = 2,198 units × Rs 40 = Rs 87,920
• Exported: 5,130 units × Rs 11 = Rs 56,430
• Yearly saving: Rs 1,44,350
• Payback: Rs 7,00,000 ÷ Rs 1,44,350 = 4.8 years

Example 2: 5 kW hybrid, 5 kWh battery, no export, 30% daytime self-use

• Used in the day plus from the battery: 2,198 + 1,643 = 3,841 units × Rs 40 = Rs 1,53,640
• The other 3,487 units are wasted, because nothing is exported.
• Payback: Rs 10,00,000 ÷ Rs 1,53,640 = 6.5 years

All our estimates:

The old net metering row assumes every one of the 7,328 units offsets a grid unit at Rs 40, which only existing users still get.

Is solar worth it without net metering?

Yes, if you use most of the power yourself. With no export, an on-grid system takes about 8 years to pay back if you use 30% of its output in the daytime, and 4.8 years at 50%.

A battery helps because evening units are worth Rs 40 while exports earn only Rs 11. In our examples, adding net billing to a hybrid system still shortens payback, from 6.5 to 5.2 years at 30% self-use. You’ll need to budget for the battery up front, though.

What are the risks of going solar now?

• Policy can change again. The buyback rate, contract length and size limit all changed in February 2026. New contracts last only 5 years, and renewal needs the DISCO’s consent.
• The buyback rate isn’t fixed. NAEPP is about Rs 10 to Rs 11 now. NEPRA can change it during your contract, and a lower rate stretches on-grid payback.
• Credits may be slow. Excess credit is carried to the next bill or paid quarterly, but Dawn noted that DISCOs haven’t made such payments in the past.
• Batteries wear out. Toolsfluent says lithium batteries last 10 to 15 years and cost Rs 2 lakh to Rs 3 lakh to replace. A 5 kWh battery was about Rs 2.3 lakh in September 2026.
• Cheap panels lose output faster. One installer guide says tier-2 panels degrade 2% to 3% a year against about 0.5% for tier-1.

More guides: Net metering · Solar system prices · Solar financing · What size system · How to apply for net billing · Solar calculator · Investment options compared