# Is solar worth it in Pakistan in 2026? Payback with and without net metering

URL: https://which.pk/solar/guides/is-solar-worth-it-pakistan/
Author: Ahtisham Imtiaz
Updated: 10 Oct 2026

## Summary

Solar still pays back in Pakistan, but more slowly for new users. Since 9 February 2026, new users get net billing: exports earn about Rs 11 a unit while grid power costs about Rs 40 or more. In our Lahore example, a 5 kW on-grid system costing Rs 7 lakh pays back in about 3.7 to 4.8 years, against 2.4 years under old net metering. A 5 kW hybrid with a 5 kWh battery and no export takes about 4.7 to 6.5 years.

## Key facts

- Export credit, new users: ~Rs 11/unit
- Grid rate, 501-600 units: Rs 40.22/unit
- 5 kW on-grid payback: ~3.7–4.8 years
- 5 kW hybrid, no export: ~4.7–6.5 years

**Yes, solar is worth it for most homes that use a lot of grid power, but it pays back more slowly than before.** Since **9 February 2026**, new solar users get net billing: exported units earn about **Rs 11**, while grid units cost about **Rs 40** or more. In our Lahore example, a **5 kW on-grid system** costing Rs 7 lakh pays back in about **3.7 to 4.8 years**, against 2.4 years under the old net metering.

**5 kW on-grid payback, new user (our estimate):** 3.7 to 4.8 years (Lahore, Rs 7 lakh system, October 2026 tariffs, before taxes. Worked example below.)

## What changed from net metering to net billing?

NEPRA notified new prosumer regulations on **9 February 2026** (Dawn, 10 Feb 2026). For anyone who applies from that date:

- **Exports are no longer swapped unit for unit.** Units you send to the grid are credited at the National Average Energy Purchase Price (NAEPP), about **Rs 10 to Rs 11** a unit. Units you take from the grid are billed at your normal tariff.
- **Contracts run 5 years**, down from 7, renewable by mutual consent.
- **Your system can't be bigger than your sanctioned load.** The old limit was 1.5 times sanctioned load (Profit, 11 Feb 2026).
- **DISCOs can refuse new applications** once solar on your transformer reaches 80% of its capacity.
- **You pay interconnection costs**, including meters (Geo, 10 Feb 2026).

Systems up to 25 kW need no NEPRA licence and pay no fee, backdated to 9 February 2026 (Dawn, 28 Apr 2026). Above 25 kW, the one-time fee is Rs 1,000 per kW.

**Already on net metering?:** NEPRA's amendment, effective from 9 February 2026, keeps existing users on the old rate and one-for-one mechanism until their agreement expires. Applications filed by 8 February 2026 are also processed under the old rules (The Nation, 3 Apr 2026). Early reports in February said otherwise; we follow the later amendment.

For the full rules, see our [net metering guide](/solar/guides/net-metering-pakistan/).

## What does grid electricity cost per unit in 2026?

Solar saves you money only by replacing units you'd otherwise buy. For unprotected homes with sanctioned load **below 5 kW**, the current per-unit rates, before taxes, are:

| Units in the month | Rate per unit | Fixed charge a month |
|---|---|---|
| 301-400 | Rs 36.46 | Rs 400 |
| 401-500 | Rs 38.95 | Rs 500 |
| 501-600 | Rs 40.22 | Rs 675 |
| 601-700 | Rs 41.85 | Rs 675 |
| Above 700 | Rs 47.20 | Rs 675 |

We worked these out from the July 2025 tariff, S.R.O. 1157(I)/2025, minus the cuts in NEPRA's 11 February 2026 decision as reported by Geo. For example, 501-600 units: Rs 41.62 minus Rs 1.40 is Rs 40.22.

The Power Division notified the new fixed charges in February 2026 (Profit, 17 Feb 2026). We couldn't open the newer gazette notification itself.

Homes with sanctioned load of **5 kW or more** are on time-of-use rates instead. In the July 2025 schedule these were **Rs 46.85 peak** and **Rs 40.53 off-peak**. We haven't confirmed the 2026 time-of-use figures.

**Solar doesn't remove the fixed charge:** An on-grid home still pays the monthly fixed charge, up to Rs 675. The Power Division said in February 2026 that the growth of off-grid solar was one reason it added fixed charges.

## How much power does a 5 kW system make?

Global Solar Atlas gives **1,465.6 units per kW a year** for Lahore. A 5 kW system makes:

- 5 × 1,465.6 = **7,328 units a year**
- about **611 units a month**, or **20 units a day**

That's a best case for a well-tilted, clean, unshaded system. January output in Lahore is about 36% lower than April (93.2 against 146.6 units per kW).

Karachi (about 1,697 units per kW) and Quetta (about 1,936) get more sun. For other cities, see [what size solar system you need](/solar/guides/what-size-solar-system/).

## How long does solar take to pay back in Pakistan?

**The home:** Lahore, about 600 units a month, unprotected, on the grid.

**Our assumptions:**

- **Each unit you use yourself saves Rs 40.** That sits between the 501-600 slab (Rs 40.22) and the 2025 off-peak rate (Rs 40.53).
- **Each unit you export earns Rs 11.**
- **Self-use:** 30% or 50% of solar output is used directly in the daytime. This depends on when you run ACs, pumps and appliances, so we show both.
- **Prices:** Rs 7 lakh for 5 kW on-grid, inside installer prices of Rs 5.5 lakh to Rs 9 lakh (Toolsfluent, Aston Energy, 2026). Rs 10 lakh for 5 kW hybrid with a 5 kWh lithium battery, inside Aston Energy's Rs 9 lakh to Rs 13 lakh. See [solar system prices](/solar/guides/solar-system-price-pakistan/).
- **Battery:** 5 kWh at 90% usable moves 4.5 units a day into the evening, or 1,643 units a year. The 90% figure is a battery seller's claim, and we ignore charging losses.

**Example 1: 5 kW on-grid with net billing, 30% self-use**

- Self-used: 7,328 × 30% = 2,198 units × Rs 40 = **Rs 87,920**
- Exported: 5,130 units × Rs 11 = **Rs 56,430**
- Yearly saving: **Rs 1,44,350**
- Payback: Rs 7,00,000 ÷ Rs 1,44,350 = **4.8 years**

**Example 2: 5 kW hybrid, 5 kWh battery, no export, 30% daytime self-use**

- Used in the day plus from the battery: 2,198 + 1,643 = 3,841 units × Rs 40 = **Rs 1,53,640**
- The other 3,487 units are wasted, because nothing is exported.
- Payback: Rs 10,00,000 ÷ Rs 1,53,640 = **6.5 years**

All our estimates:

| Set-up | Cost | Saving a year (30% / 50% self-use) | Payback (30% / 50%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| On-grid, old net metering (before 9 Feb 2026) | Rs 7 lakh | Rs 2,93,120 | 2.4 years |
| **On-grid, net billing** | Rs 7 lakh | Rs 1,44,350 / Rs 1,86,864 | **4.8 / 3.7 years** |
| On-grid, no export | Rs 7 lakh | Rs 87,920 / Rs 1,46,560 | 8.0 / 4.8 years |
| **Hybrid 5 kWh, no export** | Rs 10 lakh | Rs 1,53,640 / Rs 2,12,280 | **6.5 / 4.7 years** |
| Hybrid 5 kWh, net billing | Rs 10 lakh | Rs 1,91,997 / Rs 2,34,511 | 5.2 / 4.3 years |

The old net metering row assumes every one of the 7,328 units offsets a grid unit at Rs 40, which only existing users still get.

**What these numbers leave out:** Taxes and surcharges on your bill (which make each saved unit worth more), panel degradation, future tariff changes, financing costs, and the drop to a lower slab when you buy fewer units. Real rooftop output is usually below the Global Solar Atlas figure.

## Is solar worth it without net metering?

Yes, if you use most of the power yourself. With no export, an on-grid system takes about 8 years to pay back if you use 30% of its output in the daytime, and 4.8 years at 50%.

A battery helps because evening units are worth Rs 40 while exports earn only Rs 11. In our examples, adding net billing to a hybrid system still shortens payback, from 6.5 to 5.2 years at 30% self-use. You'll need to [budget for the battery](/solar/guides/solar-financing-pakistan/) up front, though.

## What are the risks of going solar now?

- **Policy can change again.** The buyback rate, contract length and size limit all changed in February 2026. New contracts last only 5 years, and renewal needs the DISCO's consent.
- **The buyback rate isn't fixed.** NAEPP is about Rs 10 to Rs 11 now. NEPRA can change it during your contract, and a lower rate stretches on-grid payback.
- **Credits may be slow.** Excess credit is carried to the next bill or paid quarterly, but Dawn noted that DISCOs haven't made such payments in the past.
- **Batteries wear out.** Toolsfluent says lithium batteries last 10 to 15 years and cost Rs 2 lakh to Rs 3 lakh to replace. A 5 kWh battery was about Rs 2.3 lakh in September 2026.
- **Cheap panels lose output faster.** One installer guide says tier-2 panels degrade 2% to 3% a year against about 0.5% for tier-1.

More guides: [Net metering](/solar/guides/net-metering-pakistan/) · [Solar system prices](/solar/guides/solar-system-price-pakistan/) · [Solar financing](/solar/guides/solar-financing-pakistan/) · [What size system](/solar/guides/what-size-solar-system/) · [How to apply for net billing](/solar/guides/how-to-apply-for-net-metering/) · [Solar calculator](/solar/tools/solar-calculator/) · [Investment options compared](/money/guides/investment-options-pakistan/)

## Questions people ask

### Is solar still worth it in Pakistan after net billing?

In our Lahore example, yes: a 5 kW on-grid system pays back in about 3.7 to 4.8 years at October 2026 prices, against 2.4 years under the old net metering. Using more of your solar power yourself shortens it.

### Can I install solar without net metering?

Yes. A system that doesn't export needs no net billing agreement. In our example a 5 kW hybrid system with a 5 kWh battery and no export pays back in about 4.7 to 6.5 years.

### What is the difference between net metering and net billing?

Net metering swapped exported and imported units one for one. Net billing, for users from 9 February 2026, credits exports at about Rs 11 a unit and charges imports at your normal tariff.

### What happens to people who already had net metering?

NEPRA's amendment, effective from 9 February 2026, keeps them on the old rate and mechanism until their agreement expires. Applications made by 8 February 2026 are also handled under the old rules.

## Sources

- [NEPRA (Prosumer) Regulations, 2026 (S.R.O. 251(I)/2026), Wayback Machine copy](https://web.archive.org/web/20260209155326/https://www.nepra.org.pk/Legislation/3-Reg/3.35%20NEPRA%20%20Prosumer%20Regulations%202026/NEPRA%20Prosumer%20Regulations%20(SRO%20251(I)2026)%2009-02-26.PDF), NEPRA (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [S.R.O. 1157(I)/2025: Schedule of Electricity Tariffs, A-1 Residential (effective 1 July 2025)](https://www.mepco.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Consumer-End-Tariff-SRO-1157-01-07-2025-MEPCO.pdf), Ministry of Energy (Power Division) / NEPRA, via MEPCO (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Global Solar Atlas site data: Lahore](https://api.globalsolaratlas.info/data/lta?loc=31.5204,74.3587), World Bank / ESMAP (Solargis) (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Nepra pulls the plug on net-metering (10 Feb 2026)](https://www.dawn.com/news/1972203), Dawn (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Reversing earlier decisions, Nepra exempts pre-Feb 9 prosumers from new regulations (3 Apr 2026)](https://www.nation.com.pk/03-Apr-2026/reversing-earlier-decisions-nepra-exempts-pre-feb-9-prosumers-new-regulations), The Nation (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Nepra abolishes licence requirement, fee for small solar users (28 Apr 2026)](https://www.dawn.com/news/1995812), Dawn (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [No more net metering as govt shifts to net billing (10 Feb 2026)](https://www.geo.tv/latest/650018-no-more-net-metering-as-govt-shifts-to-net-billing), Geo News (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Nepra imposes fixed charges on consumers using up to 300 units (11 Feb 2026)](https://www.geo.tv/latest/650317-nepra-imposes-fixed-charges-on-consumers-using-up-to-300-units), Geo News (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Power Division notifies fixed monthly charges on domestic consumers (17 Feb 2026)](https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/02/17/power-division-notifies-fixed-monthly-charges-on-domestic-consumers-to-recover-rs101-billion/), Profit (Pakistan Today) (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [How will existing solar net metering users be affected by NEPRA's new regulations? (11 Feb 2026)](https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/02/11/how-will-existing-solar-net-metering-users-be-affected-by-nepras-new-regulations), Profit (Pakistan Today) (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Net billing shock: NEPRA's new rules push up power bills (10 Feb 2026)](https://english.aaj.tv/news/330452305/net-billing-shock-nepras-new-solar-rules-push-up-power-bills-for-consumers), Aaj English TV (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [5kW Solar System in Pakistan 2026 (reviewed 20 Aug 2026)](https://www.toolsfluent.com/blog/5kw-solar-system-pakistan-complete-guide), Toolsfluent (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Solar lithium battery prices fall in Pakistan (20 Sep 2026)](https://thepakistanconnect.com/?p=133802), Pakistan Connect (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [5kW Solar System Price in Pakistan 2026 (29 Jul 2026)](https://astonenergy.com.pk/5kw-solar-system-price-in-pakistan-2026/), Aston Energy (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Lithium vs tubular batteries](https://maxpower.com.pk/news/lithium-vs-tubular-batteries-which-one-actually-saves-more-money-in-pakistan/), Max Power (accessed 10 Oct 2026)
- [Global Solar Atlas site data: Karachi](https://api.globalsolaratlas.info/data/lta?loc=24.8607,67.0011), World Bank / ESMAP (Solargis) (accessed 10 Oct 2026)